2020 In-Focus: Data show uncertainty growing among likely voters in May

Welcome to May’s update on our 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. This month we will showcase a recent increase in undecided voters, following Super Tuesday and in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party24%
Republican Party25%
Don’t know51%
Source: RIWI data, US tracking, April 1-30, 2020, 9,417 respondents. *Respondents are unique, anonymous, and non-incentivized.
  • In April, we see the Republicans narrowly edge out the Democrats as the party most likely to win in a respondent’s state
    • With half indicating don’t know, this election outcome is still far from clear
  • Since our last update, Senator Sanders dropped out of the race leaving Former Vice President Biden as the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate in the upcoming election
  • This month, Former Vice President Biden gains his greatest lead over President Trump since we began tracking in fall 2019

Uncertainty about election results is increasing among likely voters 

Following the winnowing of the field of Democratic presidential candidates and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we see uncertainty about the election result increasing among likely voters. These respondents have indicated that it is worth their time to vote, but are unable to predict who will win in their state (both academic research and previous RIWI predictions show that asking who respondents think will win is more predictive than tallying individual preferences).

From March 2 to April 6, the share of don’t know responses surged 10 percentage points. Although this increase levelled off through April, monitoring these undecided voters will be crucial to predicting the result of the upcoming election. 

You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here

About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy, and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

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