2020 In-Focus: March 2020 Update Shows Support for President Trump Returns to Fall 2019 Level

Welcome back to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party26%
Republican Party25%
Don’t know49%
Source: RIWI data, US tracking, February 1-29, 2020, 5,829 respondents. 
Respondents are unique, anonymous, and non-incentivized.

  • While the share of don’t know continues to be very high, among those who indicated they are likely to vote, it drops to 26% this month (the lowest level we have seen so far)
    • Both parties are tied among likely voters at 37% as the party most likely to win in a respondent’s state
  • Since our last update, Former Vice President Biden has returned as the Democratic candidate with the highest support in our head-to-head matchups, however, Senator Sanders is the only democratic candidate that beats President Trump
  • We added former Mayor Michael Bloomberg to the head-to-head matchups in mid-February after his increased polling numbers and media attention. Initial results show former Mayor Bloomberg ahead of Senator Warren with 25% support, 29% for President Trump, and 46% undecided

Support for President Trump returns to fall 2019 level

Earlier this winter we saw support for President Trump increase in the wake of his impeachment in the House of Representatives and backlash against the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. However, after his acquittal in the Senate impeachment trial we see support for President Trump beginning to decline. In the final week of February, 51 percent of respondents prefer President Trump to win the 2020 Presidential election over a randomly exposed Democratic candidate, returning his support to a level we saw in the fall of 2019. This drop is coming from the Northeastern, Southern, and Western regions of the country as we see support for President Trump remain stable in the Midwest through February, a crucial swing region in the upcoming election. 

You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here

About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy,               and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under              long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

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