Welcome back to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data.
RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.
Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?
Source: RIWI data, US tracking, January 1-31, 2020, 6,413 respondents.
Respondents are unique, anonymous, and unincentivized.
- While the share of don’t know continues to be very high, among those who indicated they are likely to vote, it drops to 30%
- 36% of likely voters believe the Republican party will win in their state while 34% believe the Democratic party will
- Since our last update, Senator Sanders has overtaken Former Vice President Biden as the Democratic candidate with the highest support in our head-to-head matchups, although he still does not beat President Trump
Support remains high for President Trump through Senate impeachment trial
Last month we saw support for President Trump increase in the wake of his impeachment in the House of Representatives and backlash against the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. We check back in this month to see whether this support was sustained.
Through the impeachment trial in the Senate, support for President Trump has remained high. In the final week of January, 55 percent of respondents prefer President Trump to win the 2020 Presidential election over a randomly exposed Democratic candidate. Since the start of the survey four months prior, we have seen support for the President increase by five percentage points.
You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here.
RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy, and security (see here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.
RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.