2020 In-Focus: January Update Shows President Trump gaining support

Welcome back to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party24%
Republican Party24%
Don’t know52%

*Source: RIWI data, US tracking, December 1, 2019-January 12, 2020, 7,795 respondents. Respondents are unique, anonymous, and unincentivized.

  • While the share of don’t know continues to be very high, among those who indicated they are likely to vote, it drops to 30%
    • 37% of likely voters believe the Republican party will win in their state while 33% believe the Democratic party will
  • Since our last update, support for Former Vice President Biden versus President Trump has dropped by 2% and the share of don’t know for Senator Warren has also decreased slightly 
  • Mayor Buttigieg was added this month due to increased media attention but we see that on a national level he is struggling to keep up with our leading Democratic candidates

President Trump gaining support

In the past few weeks, President Trump has faced impeachment and backlash over his orders to kill Iranian General Qasem Soleimani without Congress’ approval. Despite these events we see that President Trump’s support has actually increased. After a dip post-impeachment, the share of those who prefer President Trump to win in the 2020 Presidential Election has continued to increase.

You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here

About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy, and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

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