2020 In-Focus: Unprecedented Accurate Presidential Election Predictor

The election is wide open and other things traditional polls won’t tell you

Welcome to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and an interesting insight from our data.

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election, including the popular vote result. We will be using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?*
Democratic Party25%
Republican Party23%
Don’t know52%

*Source: RIWI data, US tracking, September 19-October 31, 2019, 10,349 respondents.

  • The election is wide open: 52% of respondents do not know which party will win their state in 2020
  • Check back here for regional and state-level breakdowns
  • Respondents were randomly exposed to one of three head-to-head matchups (President Trump vs. Former Vice President Biden, President Trump vs. Senator Warren, or President Trump vs. Senator Sanders)
  • The election is wide open: in all three head-to-heads around 50% of respondents do not know which candidate they would prefer to win in 2020

What makes these data different?

This month we want to highlight what makes our data unique compared to those of traditional polling methods. The tracker here at goggle.com is different because we are:

  • Using the same RIWI-powered technology that predicted the 2016 election
  • Collecting data continuously in real-time
  • Capturing both politically engaged and disengaged voices (traditional polling methods often only speak to those who are most engaged, skewing results)
  • Not collecting any personally identifiable information, and not incentivizing our respondents, reducing social desirability bias
  • Our unweighted sample nearly matches US census data in age, gender and geographic distribution

You can continue reading on our polling partner’s website here.


About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy, and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

%d bloggers like this: